Another poll? SNP still ahead? Thought so…munch…munch
The polls are coming fast and furious and saying the same thing – SNP secure and well in front, Brexit a damp squib in Scotland and Con/Lab beaten.
So, YouGov/DataPraxis, for 8-17th May with a big Scottish sub-poll of 796, for Westminster:
- Con 18
- Lab 13
- Lib 9
- SNP 42
- UKIP 1
- Green 5
- Brexit 9
- Ch UK 0
SNP support at 40 or above despite Brexit, seems pretty settled now, poll after poll, at a level now that almost wipes the board apart from the Liberal refuge in the far north and coastal Fife.
For EU election voting intentions:
- Con 10
- Lab 10
- Lib 7
- SNP 38
- Green 11
- UKIP 2
- Brexit 20
- Ch UK 2
There’s a wee Brexit surge for the EU elections but some of it from UKIP and damaging ConLab but well below the 40% surge for them in middle England.
Coastal Fife is fossilised, it happened in the 80s. They were old and just got older. Tho there is big clot of smugness in and around St Andrews of ‘younger’ academics.
They voted for ‘security’ in 2014 and and are now stuck with the living dead. They thought Universities would be secure, now Brexit is coming for them along with everybody else.
Then there is the farming/fishing community, they can’t understand why Brexit is coming for them too, they vote Tory and LibDem.
Sad, they might vote LibDem but it won’t help them.
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Sounds like you know the area well.
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That result would almost certainly leave the SNP still with only two seats and might reward the Brexit Mob with two.
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By my maths SNP is more likely to get 3. Brexit at least 1. Greens . Then a battle between Brexit, Tory and Labour for the remaining seat…
Not on the numbers shown in the post. SNP at 38 would take the first seat, be down to 19. Brexiters at 20 would take the second set, be down to 10. SNP at 19 would take the third seat, be down to 9.5. Greens at 11 would take the fourth seat, be down to 5.5. There are then two seats left and three parties on 10: Brexit, “Labour” and Tories.
Actually after winning two seats the SNP would be down to 6.67.
That vote share on 23rd May would leave the SNP still with only two seats and could also reward the Brexit Mob with two.
Please ignore this comment.
The SNP would win two and the Brexit Mob and Greens would definitely win one each, with BM, Lab and Con fighting over the last two.
Anything over forty percent may give SNP five or even six of the six seats
But I’m disappointed that with all that has happened we still have people who prefer to be ruled by another country
Not just any country either
England a country in turmoil that hates foreigners and will in all likelihood go to war by USA,s side against Iran Russia China or whoever is next in the battle to protect the oil dollar
Unfortunately, that’s not how the arithmetic works out.
How the arithmetic works out is (and I have a model of the d’Hondt methodology in a spreadsheet) is that, on the basis of the figures above, SNP would take 3 seats ), and Brexit 1, with them also tying with the Tories and Labour for the final seat. Clearly, it’s very unlikely that the numbers would fall EXACTLY as stated above, so there is unlikely ever to be a tie in the this way.
I believe with such a fragmented opposition, if the SNP were to achieve 59% or above, they would win all 6 seats.
(Not going to happen obviously !)
Then please show how you arrive at that conclusion, because I know how D’Hondt works and followed it exactly to reach a different answer.
Actually I’m spouting shite ! I just had another look at the spreadsheet, and I see that I overlooked the Green win !
Result would be SNP 3, Green 1, Brexit 1, with Brexit/Labour/Tory fighting it out for the final seat. Sorry 😉