How much of UK oil bonus is Scotland’s? How much is it worth? How much tax revenue will we get?


From the BBC Scotland website yesterday:

‘Forecasts of how much oil and gas could be produced by the UK offshore industry have been revised upwards. The industry regulator now believes 11.9 billion barrels will be extracted by 2050, up from an estimate of eight billion four years ago.’

Brent Crude is currently sitting at $65 per barrel so that makes a total of $773 billion.

If the UK Treasury taxes it at 19% (current rate), they’d take in $146 billion.

Around 90% of that income derives from Scottish waters.

Would they tax it? The precedents are not good. See this from Professor Richard Murphy:

 London is giving away Scotland’s oil revenues

Tom Mitro, who managed Chevron’s taxation and financial planning in the North Sea in the 1990s, said [a new tax] scheme could deprive the Treasury of more than £3bn in tax over the next decade.

“Overall impact on the Exchequer of [the transferable tax history scheme] could range from virtually zero to roughly [a] £3bn [plus] reduction in tax receipts over the next 10 years depending on oil prices and [the] number of asset sales and decommissioning [of North Sea platforms and pipelines],” he said in a research paper prepared for Global Witness, the non-governmental organisation.

But why does the Treasury care? If it assists the spin that Scotland cannot survive on its own, I suspect that’s considered a price worth paying. And I would not be at all surprised if that is part of the political motivation for this.’




4 thoughts on “How much of UK oil bonus is Scotland’s? How much is it worth? How much tax revenue will we get?

  1. bigjon999 March 12, 2019 / 11:27 pm

    I can quite believe that the UK treasury would be happy to take a multiBn£ hit if it enabled them to claim Scotland is too poor for independence.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Alasdair Macdonald March 13, 2019 / 9:35 am

      The Treasury has, increasingly, become a branch of privatised international services and ‘taking a hit’ is not the way they view it. The £3billion is going into the coffers of private speculators.


    • Jamie December 17, 2019 / 2:34 am

      146 billion is what the country will get over the next 31 years. That 773 billion is what a company will makeover 31 years. But rates do drop as low as $45 as they have done in the last year. $65 is it’s highest number. So you are taking the highest number not even the average. And the SNP were the ones that that said it would be an oil boom 2013. They expected £110 a barrel.


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