Support for United Ireland ‘surges’ with Belfast based researchers while support for Scottish Independence remains ‘hesitant’ with Hexham based researchers


In the Sunday Times today based on a survey of 1 0128 voters by Northumberland-based Panelbase:

‘Scottish independence ‘better than Brexit’ A majority of Scots believe Scottish independence would be better for the country than staying in the UK after Brexit, a new poll reveals. The Panelbase survey of 1,028 voters for The Sunday Times Scotland and LBC, before a crucial Commons vote on Theresa May’s withdrawal deal, found that more believe leaving the EU will be bad for Scotland than not. Scottish independence would be better than a no-deal Brexit, say 59%, with 41% disagreeing. While 53% say independence would benefit the country more than staying in the UK but outside the EU under a negotiated Brexit deal, 47% take the opposite view. But there is still a hesitancy to actually vote for independence. Now backed by 47% — the highest level seen by the polling company in more than two years — 53% want Scotland to remain in the UK.’


In the Express today based on a poll of 1 334 Northern Irish votes, by Belfast-based researchers, LucidTalk

‘END OF UK: United Ireland support SURGES as May’s Brexit crisis deepens. In case the poll took place in 2019, right after a Brexit spelled out by Mrs May’s agreement, 48 percent of the surveyed said they would vote to remain in the UK while another 48 percent of them said they would want to join a united Ireland. And if Britain left without a deal the number of people ready to back a united Ireland would reach 55 percent of the surveyed, including 11 percent of unionists. On the other hand, 42 percent said they would prefer to remain part of the UK, while 3 percent said they didn’t know.’

Now, our younger and better-looking (not hard) psephologist, James Kelly, has noted that Panelbase have ‘of late slotted in at the No-friendly end of the polling spectrum’. I don’t suppose he’d support any conspiratorial explanation any more than I’d suggest one. But, could  location and staffing of the research team have some subtle effect?

Many Yes-supporters I know remain puzzled by the support for Yes in these polls being stuck below 50% when their own experience tells them otherwise.

We can only hope that at least some of the 12% who feel sure that a no-deal Brexit would be worse than independence yet would vote No, or even some of the 6% who feel the same about a negotiated Brexit, begin to see the logic of then supporting an actual Yes vote on independence.



6 thoughts on “Support for United Ireland ‘surges’ with Belfast based researchers while support for Scottish Independence remains ‘hesitant’ with Hexham based researchers

  1. Alasdair Macdonald December 9, 2018 / 2:48 pm

    I would not be surprised if the Tories were prepared to let Northern Ireland ‘go’ so that they could have ‘this sceptred isle’ outof the customs union and out of the single market. They would, of course, carry this out with ‘extreme prejudice’ as four centuries of Irish history has Prit Patel’s comment about using food supplies as a source of pressure on Ireland shows not just a shocking ignorance of the place of famine in Irish history, but is also an illustration of the nasty mindset. Probably, they would foment some trouble in the North of Ireland, prior to abandoning it. I suspect that the 10 DUP MPs could becomes, dames, knights, lords, ladies, with cushy billets on the boards of big businesses. Some of the unionists in NI would migrate to the UK. There might be an interim phase of a ‘shrunken’ NI about half the current area.

    Liked by 1 person

    • 1124Loki December 9, 2018 / 8:54 pm

      John McDonnell re-emphasised his wish for a united Ireland on channel four news, just the other night. I was was quite busy so have meant to go back and hear what he said.
      I think he has been in Scotland since, but has not been asked about it. Typical Brit Nat blinkers!


      • gavin December 10, 2018 / 8:56 am

        John, please remove the above comment. I put in a password instead of my name. Age thing.


  2. grahamp960 December 9, 2018 / 3:53 pm

    A united ireland and indie Scotland is the only logical way forward out of this Tory bourrache! In 2014 unionists argued the status quo was the solid risk free way, that’s looking more and more like the nonsense we knew it was back then. The Celtic nations are waking up, and not before time!

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Hazelann Alexander December 10, 2018 / 9:54 am

    What are the Scottish polls saying, the English have no clue how we feel… They just see £’s leaving there hot little hands

    Liked by 1 person

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