SNP surge to UDI level in YouGov sub-poll but lose agent-provocateur Thomson

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Ross discovers it’s not always better together

The YouGov poll, with data collected on 26-27 November, suggests a real surge in support for the SNP but it’s only a sub-poll of 149 adult Scots so not reliable. However, if it is indicative of something and it might be, what do we get?

  • SNP      46%
  • Con      22%
  • Lab      17%
  • LD        7%

What that would mean in terms of seats is not certain but 50% of the vote gave 56 seats in 2015, so 46% should get more than 50. This is also before any campaigning and before further Westminster farce.

Now imagine the Catalans got that kind of dominance. They’d be ‘Adiós España y hasta pronto’ (in Catalan of course). Time to put it in the manifesto for the next one?

There is a downside in that Ross Thompson would almost certainly lose. He has been a good servant to the SNP, working tirelessly to present Tory MSPs as a useless bunch of bankers. He’ll be missed.

There is also interesting evidence in this sub-poll of differences between Scotland and the rest, suggesting greater contentment with some importance of aspects of life, after 10 years of SNP policies. For example, the perceived importance of crime was the lowest in Scotland at 13% as opposed to 32% in London and only 9% of Scots thought that housing was an important issue facing the country as opposed to 28% in London. These results confirm earlier and larger polls:

Are Scots less concerned about crime not just because there is less but also because they are learning not to trust media distortion?

92% of Scots happy with their housing!

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fv1c5v409t/TheTimes_181127_BrexitDeal_VI_Trackers_bpc_w.pdf

Live in the now.

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12 thoughts on “SNP surge to UDI level in YouGov sub-poll but lose agent-provocateur Thomson

  1. bigjon999 December 1, 2018 / 4:27 pm

    The citizens of south Aberdeen must be black and blue from all the kicking themselves they will be doing. Every week this numpty plumbs ever greater depths of idiocy, and farce.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Dunphail December 1, 2018 / 5:16 pm

      As a south Aberdeen resident I can honest;y say I have never spoke to anyone who have admitted voting for him

      Liked by 3 people

      • jayne December 1, 2018 / 6:44 pm

        Im lucky I moved out of south Aberdeen, before this cockwomble made an appearance … Though have to admit he is a great source of amusement

        Liked by 3 people

      • Alasdair Macdonald December 1, 2018 / 8:35 pm

        The so-called ‘Shy Tory’ is a long-established feature of polling. It accounts for why the Tories usually do better than opinion polling indicates. The more sophisticated polling companies have methodologies to adjust for this, but, in ‘vox pops’, no such weighting can be applied.

        Many years ago, I had a colleague who was a Tory Councillor – and a decent person, by any standards – and he said that it was party tactics to mislead canvassers for other parties.

        When things are not going well, people never admit to previous culpabilities. I remember many years ago, my trade union balloted its members about a new pay and conditions deal. The result was an overwhelming majority in favour. Indeed, it was an absolute majority of the entire union membership, even when those who had not voted were taken into account. Every agreement involves contractual obligations in return for improvements in pay and conditions and, when the employers insisted on particular aspects being fulfilled, there were loud groans. No-one I spoke to admitted having voted for the deal – it was all the fault of other people!

        Come the next election, it is probably, odds-on that Mr Thomson will be returned as MP. Tories know that having power, even to the extent of voting for a numpty, is the important thing. The LibDems, who, historically have a base in the NE, would probably vote tactically for a Tory and, I am sure that the former Labour MP will be quietly urging voters to consider the Tory, should the SNP look like gaining the seat.

        Liked by 3 people

    • Brian Powell December 2, 2018 / 12:11 pm

      And I wonder how voters of Aberdeen now feel about the Labour Tory Council coalition about to become official.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Gordon McAdam December 1, 2018 / 5:55 pm

    Bit naughty there Prof – comparing Scottish figures with London!

    Like

  3. Contrary December 1, 2018 / 11:15 pm

    Tsk. You misspelt twankers there John.

    Alasdair’s rather realistic but bleak outlook on voting intentions re Ross Thomson, we can hope might not happen, but if the Tories are going to keep him as a leading light, is it not better that he’s in Westminster (far away) than Holyrood (nearby)?

    I suppose I have tactically voted against the Tories all my life, so it’s fair enough if people tactically vote against the SNP, though what they think they will gain by doing so I can’t guess, or what benefit it would be to anyone for that matter. In general, the quality of politicians in this country is fairly poor, these people are meant to be running economies and making laws after all, but the Tories in Scotland are seriously substandard by any measure. If the Tories want votes in Scotland they should be putting up decent people, instead of relying on the vote for the party. Never did get that, voting for the party regardless, whoever is standing.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. johnrobertson834 December 2, 2018 / 6:25 am

    It’s a blindspot as with flankers and blankers etc.

    Ross home or away? Might be fun to see Nicola sort him out?

    Liked by 1 person

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