All things point to SNP holding the balance of power in Westminster

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YouGov’s daily constituency-by-constituency estimate has this

Tories              304

Labour             266

SNP                  46

LibDems          12

A bare and not very workable majority requires 323. The last Survation poll had it even closer at only Labour only 1% behind which would narrow the gap further. Either way, those perennial coalitioners the Lib Dems would be too few to matter so the SNP would hold the balance.

While the ‘poll of polls’ for the last week has the Tories clear this does not take account of their catastrophic decline, even amongst the elderly, in the last few days, nor the Jezza surge.

So, the Tories try to run a minority government and get voted down on their first vote of no confidence. They daren’t call another election knowing that would further alienate the electorate, give Labour more time and maybe produce a clear overall Labour majority. The second party, Labour, have a go and the SNP back their progressive policies. As we proceed, the SNP leadership talk to the Labour leadership and negotiations get underway to ensure a soft Brexit and to further devolve powers to Scotland. Jeremy is not against this and Kezia will be either gone or told to STFU!

The above prediction of only 46 for the SNP is pessimistic to my mind but it doesn’t really matter that much if they hold the balance confidently and clearly.

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2 thoughts on “All things point to SNP holding the balance of power in Westminster

  1. Contrary June 7, 2017 / 9:32 pm

    Myself & a co-worker have put a bet on how many seats the Tories will get. I have said 295, he has said 335, and the closest wins an empire biscuit. So wishful thinking and total pessimism give us a huge margin for error where one of us MUST win. (I am being ironic). Two empire biscuits for an exactly correct result.

    On another note, I was very curious about T May’s weirdo behaviour and wondered if she was ill, so found this guardian article interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/brain-flapping/2017/jun/06/political-culture-shock-could-paris-syndrome-explain-theresa-mays-meltdowns

    I vaguely remember hearing about the Paris Syndrome ages ago, and would never have thought about it as an explanation. It does seem quite feasible to me, though how a public figure has it, well you have to wonder about the great halls of power.

    Hmm. Just realised: ‘Empire’ biscuit. Have I been led astray?

    Like

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