SNP to retain nearly all their seats because 60% of Scots would never vote for the Tories, Ruth Davidson’s satisfaction rates have collapsed and even Scottish Labour are sharing in the ‘Jezzasurge’

index

The Ipsos MORI poll for STV on Wednesday has some interesting bits in it if you look at the data more closely. STV headlined it:

‘STV election poll: SNP to hold 50 seats amid Tory gains’

 

Look more closely though at the data and things are much less positive for Ruth and the Tories in Scotland and, I think, suggest more than 50 seats for the SNP.

First, from September, Ruth Davidson’s satisfaction rate has declined by 26 points as even Kezia Dugdale’s has increased by 8 points cutting the gap to only 6%. (39% and 45%). Kezia’s swing may have benefited by association with Jeremy Corbyn’s 13 point swing to 50% satisfaction in the same period.

The Scottish Tory strategy is heavily based on Ruth rather than the party. This is beginning to look like a mistake as she falls in the polls.

As for the parties, there too, are signs the surge has died. Asked which party they preferred, respondents said:

SNP                  36%

Tory                 19%

Labour             19%

 

At first sight this looks disappointing for the SNP but when you look at some other figures, the SNP position looks stronger if only because Labour look like recovering some of the support they seemed to have lost to the Tories earlier in the year. As I expected the Unionist card swayed some Labour voters for a bit until they saw the two manifestos and the true horrors of UK Toryism.

60% of Scottish voters said they would never vote Tory while only 33% said they would never vote SNP. Also, crucially, when voters were asked which party they would vote for if it had a chance of winning in their constituency, 35 per cent said Labour, while only 16 per cent would vote Conservative.

This all suggests to me that much of the Labour vote will return to its home, killing the Tory surge and leaving the SNP to pick up nearly all the seats again even with a slightly  reduced majority.

Finally, this was a landline telephone-based poll and these always suggests a smaller SNP vote due to the tendency for their many supporters among the  young and less well-off not to have landlines.

https://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-mori-scotland-public-opinion-monitor-may-2017

Jezzasurge

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-latest-jeremy-corbyn-london-labour-prime-minister-theresa-may-conservatives-a7766941.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-prime-minister-surge-in-bets-announcement-four-extra-bank-holidays-labour-leader-party-a7699121.html

Advertisements

2 thoughts on “SNP to retain nearly all their seats because 60% of Scots would never vote for the Tories, Ruth Davidson’s satisfaction rates have collapsed and even Scottish Labour are sharing in the ‘Jezzasurge’

  1. Sooz June 3, 2017 / 7:43 pm

    Ruth has done her best to keep the details of Tory policies shielded from the Scottish electorate and has banked on a jolly prefect persona to win political friends. However, whatever she’d chosen to do she would have crumbled – it’s just taken a bit longer because the media weren’t focusing up here on Tory policies, just “Keep the SNP out”.

    I was with a group of SNP campaigners the other week, holding a silent protest about Tory policies. One of the banners mentioned the rape clause, and a couple of women passing by noticed it. One of those two women explained to her friend what the rape clause actually was and her friend’s face took on a look of absolute horror. She could barely believe it.

    When people understand exactly what Ruth and her Tory pals stand for – upholding Westminster’s Tory policies in all their gory detail – the fog lifts. They ask themselves why they didn’t know, when their media are supposed to tell them and “Ruth’s candidates” give no policy detail except one – stop the SNP.

    No complacency here, but your article does give me a smidgeon of confidence, John.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s