Evidence of biased sampling to reduce SNP support by ‘secretive’pollster?


When I saw this, I was immediately surprised and then suspicious:


Labour 9 points ahead? Aye right, so they are! Then I looked at the Scottish sub-poll to see this!


Away! This is so out there it’s unbelievable. The trend in the last 12 or so sub-polls has put Labour below 20%, as low as 15%, and the SNP consistently over 40% but tending, in the last 7, to between 45% and 50%. Where did they get their sample? A care home for old/Old Labour Party members?

Who are Hanbury Strategy?

Of course, nearly all of the polling companies are profit-making businesses run and staffed by privately-educated Oxbridge graduates with elite connections but Hanbury seems especially ‘inside.’ See this from Financial News in June 2017:

‘As financial executives scramble for clarity on the new UK government’s Brexit plans, Barclays has joined a small club of City firms that have hired a little-known consultancy with ties to the highest echelons of British politics. The UK lender has become the latest financial institution to sign up for the advisory services offered by Hanbury Strategy, an unlikely partnership between Ameet Gill, the influential pro-Remain former director of strategy for Number 10 and a special adviser to then Prime Minister David Cameron, and Paul Stephenson, the pro-Brexit former communications director for campaign group Vote Leave.’

Gill has previously been reprimanded by the Office of the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments for unapproved contacts.






7 thoughts on “Evidence of biased sampling to reduce SNP support by ‘secretive’pollster?

  1. Bugger (the Panda) April 11, 2019 / 9:08 am

    Morals of the bazaar.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. John Docherty , April 11, 2019 / 9:21 am

    Kin you smell Jackie Bailie ,a kin ,😡😡😡😡😡😣

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Scott April 11, 2019 / 9:50 am

    What say you on this John “BBC’s Jackie Bird leaves Reporting Scotland” no great loss for us.


  4. Alan April 11, 2019 / 10:03 am

    The occasional +10% outlier isn’t unexpected, especially when looking solely at subsamples. If you look at the top line, they’ve found the SNP has 3.9% of the UK-wide vote. In 2017, they got 3%. In 2015, it was 4.7%.

    I know you’re starving for a full-scale Scotland poll because I am too. The last one was over a month ago. But poring over subsamples isn’t a substitute.

    Mind you, I’m not gonna be surprised if the SNP’s vote share actually is falling too. The Brexit extensions are eating into time to hold IndyRef2 before the mandate expires in 2021. Sturgeon’s wait-and-see is wise and buying up huge amounts of goodwill from wavering No voters, but it’s incredibly frustrating for those of us who are already Yes.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. johnrobertson834 April 11, 2019 / 2:14 pm

    Even if it’s the only one in 20 plus and at the same time as Kantar get 5% for SNP?


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s