SNP hold on to a lead big enough to keep nearly all their seats and Scottish Tories go back where they belong – third place, no prize according to latest poll.

johnrobertson834

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I’ve taken this data from the excellent http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk. You might wonder why I don’t just share it but I want to make a slightly different view of what it means. Like Scot goes Pops’ sharp-as-a-tack James Kelly, I recognise it might be a rogue poll we’re about to look at but I’m more optimistic or naïve than him. We’ll soon find out.

Here’s what the Survation online poll on the 3rd June has for the UK:

Conservatives 40% (-6)
Labour 39% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (+2)
Wouldn’t that be luverly?

It’s different from the other pollsters but as I’ve already pointed out their methods are often too Tory-friendly. See:

Despite methodology biased against shy, young and less-well-off, Ipsos MORI / STV poll shows ‘Yes’ vote holding up again

After the surprise Tory win in 2015, they’ve been compensating for ‘shyness’ and supposed higher turnout amongst Tories. They’ve also been using the less-reliable landline telephone data collection method which neglects the younger and poorer voters.

I do agree a 1% gap is a bit unlikely but I do believe it’s get uncomfortably close for Theresa.

Now for the Scottish subset:

SNP: 44%,

 Labour 28%,

Conservatives 21%,

Liberal Democrats 6%,

UKIP 2%

James wrote ‘Obviously an individual Scottish subsample can’t be regarded as remotely reliable…’

I’m not so sure. The subset will have been scientifically based just like the overall sample. Here’s what I wrote about the Kantar TNS Omnibus poll:

‘It’s only a subset of 108 Scots from a survey of 1200 UK voters but like the overall sample it is considered representative of the electorate so it’s still pretty interesting. Remember the 1200 represent 0.0026% of the roughly 46 million-strong electorate and the Scottish subset of 108 represents 0.0027% of the roughly 4 million-strong electorate. Let’s not quibble over the 0.0001% difference.’

Either way, 44% and a wee Labour recovery taking votes back from the Tories and/or splitting the two Unionist challengers can only help the SNP hold on to nearly all their seats even with a reduced majority.

11 thoughts on “SNP hold on to a lead big enough to keep nearly all their seats and Scottish Tories go back where they belong – third place, no prize according to latest poll.”

  1. macgilleleabhar June 4, 2017 / 3:53 pm

    Aye James is a canny lad with optimism and rightly so but my sentiments go with you Professor.

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  2. Pingback: SNP hold on to a lead big enough to keep nearly all their seats and Scottish Tories go back where they belong – third place, no prize according to latest poll. | speymouth
  3. John June 4, 2017 / 3:57 pm

    Keep talking positive John , I like it , and I sincerely hope you have got it in the bag . I also don’t think Saturday’s march will have done us any harm !

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  4. johnrobertson834 June 4, 2017 / 7:26 pm

    Latest from Scot goes Pop
    YouGov contradicts Survation by suggesting the SNP lead has increased
    The YouGov projection model isn’t being updated today because of the tragedy in London, but our regular commenter ‘Unknown’ pointed out that partial figures for Scotland from yesterday’s update were unexpectedly revealed on Twitter a few hours ago. With changes from the last full-scale YouGov Scottish poll, they are –

    SNP 42% (n/c)
    Conservatives 26% (-3)
    Labour 25% (+6)

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

    To me that’s lose Borders and nothing else?

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  5. Ewan MacKenzie June 4, 2017 / 11:11 pm

    It’s elementary statistics that a poll of 108 people has a much larger standard deviation than a poll of 1000 people. Small polls/subsamples can’t be trusted (which is not the same as saying they are invariably wrong). If they could be trusted then the polling companies would poll fewer people to get the same answer at lower cost.

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    • johnrobertson834 June 5, 2017 / 7:33 am

      I know but, as you say, they can be indicative. I’m not sure a poll of 100 has a ‘much’ larger SD than a poll of 1000.

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      • Clydebuilt June 5, 2017 / 7:58 am

        I’m not a statistician (good old autocorrect) however it seems intuitive to me that the reliability of the poll is proportional to the %age of the population polled.
        As John has demonstrated, almost exactly the same %age was sampled on both sides of the border. Therefore, surely the findings are equally reliable in Scotland as in England.

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  6. Sandra Bennett June 4, 2017 / 11:53 pm

    SNP will hopefully hold their seats, Voting Tory or Labour isclikecthrowing your Vote away,. We’ve never had a Government do for it’s Country like the SNP have.Pollsxare subject to whom they ask and they’re usually wrong, things change as do people and it’s still 4 days to go yet .

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  7. Sandra Bennett June 4, 2017 / 11:54 pm

    SNP will hopefully hold their seats, Voting Tory or Labour it’s like throwing your Vote away,. We’ve never had a Government do for it’s Country like the SNP have.Polls are subject to whom they ask and they’re usually wrong, things change as do people and it’s still 4 days to go yet ..

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